With the grand old party Congress having suffered a setback and the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s rout in the recently concluded assembly polls in Bihar, all is not well within the ruling JMM in Jharkhand.

As per media reports, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren and his wife, Kalpana Soren recently met a top Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader in Delhi. In fact, the Soren family is returning from the national capital today.

Their ‘meeting’ has triggered intense political speculation, with reports suggesting that the interaction was far more than a routine courtesy call. Some political insiders even claimed that the initial groundwork for a possible understanding between the BJP and the JMM may already be in place.

Amid the buzz, Jharkhand Governor Santosh Gangwar met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi on Tuesday. This has further activated the speculation that there is a potential fracturing of ties within so called Mahagatbhandhan.

Media reports say, the JMM harbours deep resentment after being ignored in the Bihar election. Despite initial assurances, the JMM was not allocated the seats it demanded, leading its high command not contesting even in one constituency.

Although the new form of the alliance remains unclear, speculation about the JMM parting ways with the Congress is gaining momentum.

Jharkhand has 81 assembly seats and requires 41 for a majority. Chief Minister Hemant Soren currently heads a coalition government. 

JMM holds 34 seats, supported by the Congress with 16, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with 4 and the CPI-ML(L) with 2 legislators, giving the ruling alliance a total strength of 56.

If Soren decides to align with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the political arithmetic would drastically change. The JMM's 34 seats combined with the BJP's 21, the LJP's 1, AJSU's 1, JDU's 1 and others 1 would take the tally to 58, comfortably crossing the majority mark.

If there is any shift, it would reshape the power structure in the state of Jharkhand completely.

Political analysts believe that a JMM-BJP alliance, if it materialises, would be one of the most unexpected political moves in recent years.

During the 2024 election campaign, both parties were locked in an intense confrontation and Hemant Soren consistently accused the BJP of misusing ED investigations to target him and gain public sympathy.

Past experiences show that the JMM-BJP partnership has historically been unstable, particularly between 2010 and 2014 when frequent withdrawals of support and power shifts created political turbulence.

However, if the current speculation turns into reality, it will rewrite the entire political, leadership and policy landscape of Jharkhand. So far, there has been no official confirmation, public statement or party document hinting at any alliance.