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30 July 2024
The Jharkhand assembly polls are expected at the end of this 2024, making BJP oil its party machine to defeat the ruling JMM-led INDIA coalition allies- Congress, RJD, and Left parties.
In all, out of a total of 81 Assembly seats,44 are General, 28 are Schedule Tribe and 9 seats are Scheduled Caste reserved seats.
In 2019, the Assembly polls when BJP, AJSU, and JVM led by ex-CM Babulal Marandi as well as other parties had contested separately.
The results were as follows.
In the fourth coming 2024 Assembly polls, JVM led by ex-CM Babulal Marandi has merged with the BJP and AJSU is its ally.
Alongside, the ruling JMM, Congress, RJD, and Left parties had joined hands under the umbrella of the INDIA block. And there is one disadvantage of anti-incumbency against this block.
However, by rejecting the petition filed by the Enforcement Directorate, challenging the bail granted by the Jharkhand High Court to Hemant Soren, the Supreme Court has hit the central agency.
In effect, the BJP has suffered a jolt as perception spread down below at the panchayat level is “ Hemant was innocent. He was framed on false charges”, even though the PMLA COURT continued to process the charge sheet filed by ED against him.
Apparently, this SC verdict has given Chief Minister Hemant Soren a double relief. The first relief came to Soren after he got bail granted by the Jharkhand High Court with its observation that he was “ prima facie not guilty” and returned from jail. It was taken as a legal victory facilitating him to play the old game of “victim card”.
Now, he was the CM again. His allies and their leaders - MLAs were showcasing themselves as a united group to regain power for the second term.
As the CM, Soren has continued his efforts to make, which observed that he was “ prima facie not guilty” and had his government notify a series of appointments of staff, officers, and teachers. Many migrant workers most of whom were Adivasis were rescued from alleged exploitation by domestic and foreign employers.
Also, showcasing himself as a ‘victim’ of “ fake charges” of “corruption” and “ land deals” “slapped” by the BJP through the ED, Soren has sought to gain sympathy from among his party’s powerful support base of what is known as “AM” combination.
The AM stands for Adivasi and Muslims. Prior to 2019 polls, when Adivasis were divided among Christian and Non -Christian Adivasis, a vast part of non -Christian Adivasi community stood for the BJP.
This is no more a reality mainly due to an old decision of the BJP government. In 2017, the state Assembly led by BJP leader and ex-CM Raghubar Das( now Governor, Odisha) had drafted and passed a bill amending the Chotanagpur Land Tenancy Act 1907.
This was not acceptable to many groups of tribal communities who protested against it. These 1907 land laws introduced by the British prohibited the sale and purchase of tribal land to non-tribals and thereby protected tribal owners from the problem of displacement and homelessness.
Apparently, the Raghubar Das government had tabled the amendment bill to allow the sale of tribal land to non -tribals on selected sectors for “development” purposes. This was opposed by many tribal communities including the Church( both Catholic and Protestant).
Their protests were so widespread that the then Governor Droupadi Murmu, who is now President of India, had declined to sign the Jharkhand Assembly-passed bill.
Left with no alternative, the Raghubar Das government withdrew the Chotanagpur Tenancy Amendment Bill on the floor of the state assembly.
While the Adivasi protests continued, the JMM is on record having used it as an opportunity to project the BJP as a party of “ Bania”( businessmen and traders) and Adivasi virodhi( anti Adivasi).
The impact was visible in the 2019 polls. Even though they contested polls separately, JMM, Congress, RJD and Left parties defeated the BJP and formed the government.
Against, this backdrop, the BJP is now gearing up to confront again the electoral backlash from the tribal communities.
So, how does the BJP hope to gain support from tribals to oust the JMM-Congress-RJD- Left’ INDIA block to come back to power in the state?
The BJP has already floated the anti-corruption and “ development” agenda as its poll promise.
Neutral observers think that this poll agenda of the BJP and its ally AJSU under NDA may not yield results after the SC order dated July 29 rejecting the ED’s plea challenging the Jharkhand High Court’s order granting bail to CM Hemant Soren while clearly observing that “he is prima facie not guilty.”
Another key strategy of the NDA can be to pinpoint promises about development works. And, apologise in public that it will not amend the land laws. It can do so at the panchayat level by circulating pamphlets in local regional languages.
Alongside, a big community of Moolwasi- Kurmi- Mahtos- most of whom were farmers and were highly enterprising. They have always stood for the BJP. Not now though.
A big group of Kurmi Mahtos has given rise to one young leader Rajendra Mahato. He gained popular support on the ground that he had launched agitations seeking for the community, a status of schedule tribe. Right now the Kurmi Mahtos were identified as Backward Caste.
The presence of Rajendra Mahato and his party can work as Vote Katwa ( Voter Cutter). As such, the BJP has to mobilise them exposing him for campaigning on a false agenda since Kurmi Mahtos were never STs.
Another strategy of the BJP has already been signalled - to field bigger tribal faces. The saffron party is already contemplating putting up heavy-weight leaders like former Union Minister Arjun Munda and ‘Bahu’ of JMM Suoremo Shibu Soren — Sita Soren — in ST reserved seats.
Ranchi mayor Asha Lakhra, former MP Geeta Koda and BJP’s state president Babulal Marandi too are likely to be given tickets to contest the upcoming Assembly polls, the party has hinted.
If Arjun Munda and Babulal Marandi fight from assembly seats, it will not only enthuse the cadre there but also galvanize the cadre of adjoining seats as well, the party feels.
The BJP appears mindful of the tribal sentiments and the fact is, it has just zero ST Lok Sabha seats in its kitty in the state. However, with bigger tribal faces in the fray, the party hopes to make the best shot in the assembly poll.
