Before the Durga Puja festival begins on October 9, the Southwest Monsoon — among the wettest in years with aggregate rainfall 8% more than the long period average during the season — may begin its withdrawal from some parts of northwest India around September 22.

If that happens, the Durga Puja beginning October 9 and ending on October 12, is expected to remain free from monsoonal rains. 

In any case, the Indian Met Department has predicted that it will be the earliest time when the monsoon has started withdrawing from northwest India in 8 years. 

In 2023, it started withdrawing only around September 25, and in 2022, IMD announced on September 30 that Monsoon has withdrawn from Punjab, Chandigarh Delhi, parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

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Overall, since the season began, there has been 8% excess rainfall since June 1. In Jharkhand, rainfall was much below normal.

Across the country, there is 19% excess over central India; 5% excess over northwest India; 16% deficiency over east( including Jharkhand) and northeast India, and 24% excess over Peninsular India. 

Monsoons normally begin withdrawal on September 17 and withdraw completely from the country on October 15. A late withdrawal, especially one accompanied by active rainy spells till the end, could pose a threat to crops as they begin to mature for harvesting in the month of October.