Contrast is too visible to be overlooked. While several parts of north India were in the grip of rain devastation, 12 central, southern, and northeastern states such as Telangana, Kerala, Karnataka, Bihar, and Jharkhand are still going through a deficient monsoon.

Why? Is it due to climate change affecting the planet and India too? While climate change can not be ruled out, scientists who have studied the current contrasting environmental scenario have concluded this.

A combination of two natural phenomena called western disturbances and monsoon westerlies has brought heavy rainfall over northern India in the past week, turning the region rain-surplus for this time of the year. 

But at the same time, the absence of monsoonal advances in 12 central, southern, and northeastern states such as Telangana, Kerala, Karnataka, Bihar, and Jharkhand were still going through a deficient monsoon.

In deficit are the eastern states of Bihar (-33%), Jharkhand (-43%), and Odisha (-26%), though West Bengal has received a substantial amount of rain. 

All northeastern states except Assam are rain deficient though the average rainfall these states have received is higher than the average for the country. 

The average rainfall for any northeastern state is almost double of the average for mainland Indian states. For instance, Arunachal Pradesh has received 484mm of rain this monsoon season, which is 28% less than normal, whereas Rajasthan with just 249mm of rain is in 155% excess.

Also, rainfall data from June 1 shows that all the southern states except Tamil Nadu have received less than expected rainfall this season. Heavy rains in the South in the first week of July was restricted to the coastal regions of Kerala and Karnataka, with the mainland not receiving substantial rainfall; so much so that sowing of crops in Telangana, Andhra, Karnataka and parts of Kerala has been delayed. The Karnataka and Telangana governments have spoken of a possible monsoon drought.

However, IMD forecast is that the monsoonal rains can fall in Ranchi and adjoining areas of Jharkhand after July 14.

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