The Indian weather department today predicted that monsoon rainfall during the next four months (June to September) is likely to be “normal” at 103% of the long-period average (LPA), with a model error of +/-4%.

The IMD made the observations while presenting its second-stage long-range forecast (LRF) for the monsoon on Tuesday. It had earlier forecast that monsoon rainfall is likely to be 99% of LPA during its first stage LRF, issued in April. 

LPA is calculated for the 1971-2020 period, which is 87 mm. 

Monsoon rainfall in India is likely to be above normal over central India (over 106% of LPA), and the southern peninsula (over 106% of LPA). It is likely to be normal over northeast India (96-106% of LPA) and northwest India (96-106% of LPA). 

Rainfall for the monsoon core zone, which mainly consists of areas where agriculture is largely dependent on seasonal precipitation, is also likely to be above normal at over 106% of LPA

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